Regular readers may recall that my mathematician pal, Ted Hahn, correctly predicted the Elorza victory over former mayor, Buddy Cianci. When everyone was predicting that Trump would drop out he said no. He also predicted the Trump primary victory and that he would have his electoral votes before the convention. He has now massaged the numbers in Rhode Island and is making the prediction that Mr. Trump with a 90 percent certainty will carry Rhode Island. Here’s why.

The economy
The perception is that the economy is bad (Reality check: the unemployment rate is at a 10 year low, middle class incomes have increased by 5 percent, 2.9 million jobs were created last year, and 3.5 million Americans rose above the poverty level last year.) Regardless of fact, he thinks that Rhode Islanders seem to believe that the economic outlook is bleak for them.

Primary voter turnout
Mr. Trump received 64.9 percent of the Republican vote. To reach this percentage democrats had to disaffiliate and cross over and vote for him. They will stay with him.

No senate or highly contested contested congressional races
With a sweep of democrats now holding those offices and with little challenge in the congressional sweepstakes the voting numbers will be depressed for Hillary Clinton, who isn’t too popular even among democrats so folks won’t be motivated to “rescue ‘her.

Minority support and hidden votes
Hahn believes that there is significant minority vote here in Rhode Island for Trump. He also postulates that traditional democrats like state and municipal workers, teachers, and law enforcement won’t say that they are voting for Trump but will. The recent endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police is a sign that there are folks who are telling nobody who their preference is but who are Trump supporters sub rosa.

Governor Raimondo
Mr. Hahn believes that there is a “gotcha” mentality pervading those who are upset with the governor and who correctly or incorrectly think that if Hillary Clinton wins then the Governor will get a cabinet post in D.C.(Reality check: Gina Raimondo has denied that she wants to go to the capitol). They are retaliating by denying her that opportunity.

Perception
By election time it will look like Mr. Trump is going to win and folks will hop onto his bandwagon since they want to be with a winner.

Immigration
Voters want the borders closed and have decided already that the country is a sieve and unable to screen out terrorists. Mr. Trump’s rhetoric appeals to them.

Terrorism
People perceive that Isis and Al Qaeda have grown as a threat as have home-grown terrorists (Reality check: Some U.S. acts have been perpetrated by mentally disturbed individuals without links to terrorist networks.) New York’s Ahmad Khan Rami had no protectors. His father had turned him in, and despite New Jersey’s 3 percent Muslim neighborhood where he was arrested 50 hours later, nobody took him in and he was found sleeping in a doorway)

Hillary Clinton mistakes
Mrs. Clinton has been on a downward trajectory and her stamina has been questioned. (Reality check; She cleaned sniffling Donald’s Trump’s clock during the debate on 9/26/16).

I want to clarify that the reality checks statements are mine, not Ted’s. For the record, I also hope that my friend is wrong!

Arlene Violet is an attorney and former Rhode Island Attorney General.