STORY OF THE WEEK: It’s peak summer in Rhode Island, so politics is probably far from the minds of most Ocean Staters. But the filing of second-quarter campaign finance reports underscores how the 2026 race for governor is inexorably drawing closer. Two years is an eternity in politics — and it’s impossible to know what the landscape will look like as the active phase of the next statewide campaign gets under way. (Imagine if someone told you 31 months ago, that U.S. Reps. Jim Langevin and David Cicilline would no longer be in office within a few years).

For now, though, former CVS Health exec Helena Foulkes has reason to feel hopeful. Foulkes came very close to winning the September 2022 Democratic primary, and the winner of that race, Gov. Dan McKee, faces a sinking approval rating amid ongoing fallout from the Washington Bridge saga. The two Democrats currently basically enjoy fundraising parity, with McKee’s campaign reporting a balance of $421,352, and Foulkes $469,601, at the end of Q2.

Foulkes has been working to build ties with state lawmakers, in small meetings organized with help from state Sen. Louis DiPalma (D-Middletown), who gave her nomination speech back in 2022. “I like her from a leadership perspective,” DiPalma told me, adding that he believes Foulkes’ corporate experience gives her the ability to deliver meaningful results. Over at the McKee campaign, spokesman Mike Trainor said the governor’s falling approval rating is not giving him any second thoughts, although a formal announcement is off in the future. “Gov. McKee is certainly planning to run for re-election,” Trainor said, and he’s proud of what he’s done “to improve the lives of Rhode Islanders.”

As McKee and Foulkes edge closer to 2026, two big X factors loom: organized labor was a vital source of support for McKee in ’22, and it hasn’t warmed up to Foulkes, so which candidate gets labor’s support next time around? Another big question involves House Speaker Joe Shekarchi, who is sitting on an eye-popping $2.8 million campaign balance. Shekarchi is on record as saying he would not run against McKee, 73, in a primary. Suffice it to say, though, that a huge war chest enables the speaker to pursue a lot of different directions, including governor, if McKee ultimately decides to not seek re-election.

LEGACY: One of Teresa Paiva Weed’s most consequential decisions has gone widely overlooked in coverage of her retirement as executive director of the Hospital Association of Rhode Island. Back in December 2012, while serving as president of the state Senate, she publicly committed to a committee vote on same-sex marriage. While Paiva Weed was not a supporter of the issue, she let it play out.

The same-sex marriage bill wound up moving quickly through both chambers in May 2013 — one year after then-Speaker Gordon Fox wouldn’t even bring it to a floor vote in the House — and was signed into law by then-Gov. Lincoln Chafee. Public views on same-sex unions changed quickly, propelling support for the issue. But in a sign of her less than supportive feelings about same-sex marriage, Paiva Weed didn’t mention her key role in moving it forward when she resigned from the Senate in 2017. 

CENTER OF ATTENTION: While there’s a sparse amount of legislative competition this year, with relatively few primaries, Cranston remains a hotbed of political activity. One of the marquee Rhode Island political races is the mayoral fight there this year, with incumbent Ken Hopkins and challenger Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung initially squaring off in a GOP primary. And, as noted by the city’s director of elections, Nick Lima, four of the 19 contested primaries are in part of Cranston: Giona Picheco’s challenge to longtime Rep. Charlene Lima; Joseph Graziano’s run against Rep. Brandon Potter; the bid by Dennis Cardillo Jr., the nephew of incumbent Rep. Edward Cardillo Jr., who is also being challenged by Kelsey Coletta, the daughter of Rep. Jay Edwards (D-Tiverton), and the five-way Democratic primary for the seat being vacated by Sen. Josh Miller, featuring Darrell Brown, Melissa Carden, John Croke Jr., Bernice Morris, and Lammis Vargas.

SCOTUS: “My fight to restore the Supreme Court’s legitimacy got a bit less lonely this week,” tweeted U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, referring to support from the leader of the free world, who outlined his backing in a Washington Post op-ed. Public approval for the U.S. Supreme Court fell below 50% last year, suggesting that the issue could have some political resonance for Democrats. That said, imposing a binding ethics code and 18-year term limits on Supreme Court justices remains an uphill slog. During a conversation with reporters at T.F. Green Airport, Whitehouse acknowledged Democrats bear responsibility for how Republicans were able to remake a conservative majority on the court, and he called a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House the best way to build support for changing the court.

GENERAL ASSEMBLY: State Rep. Justine Caldwell (D-East Greenwich), who ousted GOP predecessor Anthony Giarrusso in 2018, personifies some of the changes that have swept over the General Assembly in recent years, moving the legislature a bit to the left and diminishing the cohort of pro-gun Democrats. Caldwell was the House sponsor of a bill signed into law this year requiring the safe storage of firearms. “[A]nything we can do to prevent accidents, to prevent suicides, is something I think is a really great way forward for Rhode Island, and I’m confident it will make a difference in the lives of Rhode Island families,” she said during an interview this week on Political Roundtable.

Asked about arguments that law-abiding gun owners bear the brunt of new restrictions, Caldwell said in part, “Well, gun ownership requires some responsibility. Guns are dangerous weapons. People have a right to own them, and I believe in that right, but they have to do so responsibly. I think that, you know, making sure that we protect Rhode Island children and Rhode Island families as robustly as we can is our job in the General Assembly. We want to save people who we know are at risk from themselves. That’s why you see veterans communities come out so strongly in favor of safe storage laws. And to be clear, the majority of Rhode Islanders support these laws. The folks that you see at the State House, you know, are often the most passionate minority of loud voices against these gun safety measures.”

PRESCRIPTION DRUGS: Rep. Caldwell and Sen. Linda Uijifusa (D-Portsmouth) were the sponsors of a bill signed into law by Gov. McKee this year meant to block interference by insurance companies with how prescribed drugs are delivered and administered. You don’t need to be a policy wonk to recognize how independent pharmacies have dwindled, giving broad power to giants like CVS and pharmacy benefit managers. As Eli Sherman and Tim White report, the Federal Trade Commission recently threatened to sue the three largest PBMs, including CVS Health’s Caremark, and regulators cite a “dire” situation in which 30% of surveyed Americans describe rationing and skipping prescribed medicines due to high costs.

So can a single bill in Rhode Island really make an impact amid corporate giants ruling the marketplace? “[I]t helps cancer patients and it helps kids with rare diseases get the medicine they need, where they need it, and when they need it, when it’s most convenient for them,” Caldwell responded in part. “It makes a small dent in our healthcare system overall, but for these people, and we all know someone, right, who is going through cancer treatment sadly, and they’re already looking death over the shoulder. The last thing they need is to be on the phone with their pharmacy benefit managers, missing appointments because their medicine didn’t arrive in time, having to go to a pharmacy an hour away from them because they won’t deliver it to their nearby pharmacy.”

THE RHODE ISLAND ANGLE: Via the NYT: “Timothy Mellon, a wealthy banking heir and railroad magnate, has reached the stratosphere of American political influence as the top supporter of Donald J. Trump, doling out millions to try to elect the former president and his allies. But to his neighbors in a Rhode Island beachfront enclave, he is better known as the prime suspect in the Narragansett Runestone Affair.” The ProJo reported on this in 2013, including how former AG James O’Neill represented Mellon (h/t Amy Gabarra).

O.K., COMPUTER: With gambling having crept into MLB and steadily more aspects of American life it comes as no surprise that gamblers have bet millions on Kamala Harris’ VP choice (although it’s illegal for Americans to directly participate in these markets). Closer to home, 13 Brown University students majoring in math, computer science and political science have created 24cast.org, billed as the first campaign finance simulator. According to a news release, the site uses an ensemble of 1,000 different models and more than 500,000 data inputs to measure the effect of different electoral influences. 24cast.org currently gives Donald Trump a 60% chance of winning in November. (538’s forecast is suspended for now with the recent change at the top of the Democratic ticket.) “We are thrilled with the results of the technology we’ve built,” founder Asher Labovich said via statement. “We made it open-source so that anyone can see how our models arrive at their conclusions. Many voters believe election prediction models are biased and don’t trust them. So it was important to our team that the results be data-driven with minimal assumptions. In our model, the data speaks for itself.”

IMMIGRATION: Concerns about immigration and the border are a key part of Donald Trump’s campaign. But it’s not just advocates for immigrants who describe his approach as misguided. In January, the Congressional Budget Office found that immigration is responsible for keeping the U.S. population growing through the 2050s, despite declining rates of childbirth (h/t R.I.’s own Peder Schaefer). As he reports, immigration also contributes to economic growth. And here in Rhode Island, population growth among Latinos is seen as a factor in how the state was able to keep two congressional districts after the most recent Census.

RI POLI-MEDIA SHORT TAKES: Former WJAR-TV investigative reporter Parker Gavigan, most recently comms director for the Providence City Council, is taking a new gig with RI’s Department of Veterans Services …. The ProJo is looking to hire a metro reporter …. Three scholars from Brown have been elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences …. Peg Langhammer, executive director of Day One and a decades-long fighter against sexual assault, plans to retire at the end of September …. Smithfield Town Manager Randy Rossi will be the next head of the Rhode Island League of Cities and Towns …. Peter Mello, managing director and co-CEO of WaterFire, is departing at the end of August.

KICKER: If you get away this summer to enjoy Block Island (YooHoo, Kathy Gregg!), Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket or even distant Long Island, be thankful that an edge of the Laurentide Ice Sheet helped create these destinations about 20,000 years ago, leaving what NASA calls “a piece of Rhode Island in the Atlantic.”

Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis@thepublicsradio.org.