This is less about the answers and more about driving a community conversation about what we value and the fact that we have options, and we can create what we want as a community, to a great extent.”

Don McNaughton, LittleCompton Agricultural Conservancy Trust

The Little Compton Futures Project, an exhaustive, year-long study managed by the town’s Agricultural Conservancy Trust (LCACT) and focusing on planning and land use issues in town, is ready to be shared with residents at a community forum planned for 6 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 26, at the Community Center.

“The purpose of the project is to try to contribute to a community-wide conversation about the future of Little Compton,” LCACT chair Don McNaughton said.

Last year, LCACT hired Agency Landscape & Planning out of Boston to conduct the study, which is intended in part to help guide the rewrite of the town’s Comprehensive Plan in 2028.

Additionally, McNaughton said the study will be a useful tool as town officials seek ways to protect agriculture as a key economic driver within the community, increase the town’s housing stock, and focus on how to maintain the town’s rural character and working landscapes — characteristics which for many residents make Little Compton what it is and give it a “sense of place.”

The agricultural piece is critical, McNaughton said.

“There has been an agricultural heritage to Little Compton from the very beginning, and this town has really strived to maintain and to perpetuate that. In fact, the LCACT was founded in 1986 with that specifically in mind, to try to continue to have agriculture at the center of the community and to have working landscapes — which require people to work the land — represent Little Compton at its best.”

What does it say?

At a town council meeting earlier this month, Jill Allen Dixon, an urban planner and a director of the company that conducted the study, presented highlights of a draft report. 

She began by outlining key features of what people love about Little Compton, such as its rural character, cottage style homes, and scenic coastal landscapes. Changes threatening the town’s sense of community, as outlined in the report, include housing unaffordability, shifts in year-round and seasonal residents, reduced school population, changing demographics, loss of businesses, and climate change.

Included in the report are statistics relating to the current housing supply; how many units are owner-occupied versus rented on a long-term or short-term basis; and how current home sales and conservation trends compare to other coastal communities.

Notable statistics and projections include:

• Of the 14,434 acres that comprise Little Compton, only 4,095 (28 percent) represent developable land, and that number could shrink depending on certain variables, such as the adequacy of the water supply.

• Based on historical building trends over the last five years, 325 new homes are projected to be built in town by 2060. The study suggests that community members should start examining now what choices they want to make to help guide that growth.

Two scenarios

A major portion of the study focuses on two scenarios that offer contrasting outlooks for the town, depending on the community’s choices relating to land use. The scenarios are not drastically different from one another, but they illustrate what would happen with slight shifts in approaches to land use regulations and density requirements. Both scenarios are consistent with state-wide zoning changes that went into effect on January 1.

Scenario 1 involves maintaining the status quo, whereas Scenario 2 would require a review of current zoning laws and changes where appropriate.

In Scenario 1, the development of those 325 new homes would occur on much of the currently available land, including agricultural land that is not protected. The town’s two-acre zoning rule now predominantly in effect would be followed. All buildable lots that are not protected would be developed, creating more pressure on steadily increasing housing costs.

Additionally, with this scenario, 90 percent of existing unprotected agricultural land in town could be developed by 2060.

In Scenario 2, development of the 325 homes would still occur, but the homes would be distributed differently throughout town, showing up nearer the village center and in some cases, closer to one another, with more recreational open space. The town’s two-acre zoning rule would mostly be followed, but there would be certain exceptions.

This scenario reinforces the role of village center hubs and offers a greater range of housing options. It reduces the development footprint, with half as much land used for new homes as compared to Scenario 1. Additionally, it protects 770 more acres of agricultural land than Scenario 1, along with more forest and trees. 

McNaughton emphasized that the scenarios are meant to be learning tools and by no means represent a precise forecast of what will actually happen in town.

“Their value is in generating conversation. What are our goals, what do we want in 2060 or 2100, and how do we get there as a community? The idea that the scenarios are the answers is simply not true.”

A draft of the report has been shared with the town council, planning board, and conservation commission, and a presentation to the Little Compton Housing Trust is planned this week. The study, McNaughton said, should prove helpful to each of those boards and commissions in their future work and to town residents in general.

“This is less about the answers and more about driving a community conversation about what we value and the fact that we have options, and we can create what we want as a community, to a great extent.”